“Our baseline case projects that, without changes in laws and regulations, improvements in energy efficiency will slow the pace of growth in US energy consumption, and technological progress and greater resource development will increase energy supply,” said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley. “We look at a variety of cases and compare them to the baseline case to illustrate how the availability of energy resources, the rate of technology advancement, and other factors could shape future US energy markets.”
Highlights of AEO2022 include:
- Petroleum and natural gas remain the most consumed sources of energy in the US through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing. Natural gas and renewable energy will continue to grow through 2050, with renewable energy growing fastest in all scenarios.
- Wind and solar incentives, along with falling technology costs, support robust competition with natural gas for electricity generation, while the shares of coal and nuclear power decrease in the US electricity mix. State and federal policies continue to provide significant incentive to invest in renewable resources for electricity generation and transportation fuels, while technological advancements will contribute to driving down costs and increasing competitiveness of renewables.
- US crude oil production reaches record highs, while natural gas production is increasingly driven by natural gas exports. US production of oil and natural gas will be partly driven by continued global demand through 2050. In most cases, the EIA projects continued growth in US LNG export capacity, which supports growth in US natural gas production and exports.
