EU

BP project that EU energy consumption is set to fall despite strong growth in renewables, but the region’s import dependency will remain near today’s levels. Below are some reasons why:

  • Energy demand in the EU has peaked and is expected to fall by 6% by 2035.
  • The region’s energy intensity is expected to decline by 36% during the same period.
  • Energy demand per capita in the EU declines by 8% and is overtaken by China in 2032.
  • Its share of global energy consumption falls from 13% in 2012 to 9% in 2035.
  • Demand for fossil fuels decline by 19% with losses in oil of 27%.
  • Fossil fuels account for only 67% of EU energy consumption in 2035, down from 77% in 2012.
  • Transport demand falls by 20% and oil’s share falls to 87% as gas and biofuels gain.
  • The EU’s CO2 emissions will drop by more than a quarter as gas and renewables increase their share of consumption.
  • The EU’s energy production falls by 5%.
  • Given similar declines in both production and consumption, import dependency remains relatively constant at around 55%.
  • The EU is overtaken by China as the world’s largest energy importing region in 2030, but it remains the largest net importer of natural gas.
  • Production of all fossil fuels decline in the EU, led by oil at a drop of 57% and natural gas at a drop of 46%.
  • Imports of oil will decline by 23% but imports of gas will rise by 49%.

Russia

According to BP, Russia will remain the largest net exporter of energy, satisfying 4% of global energy demand by 2035. Here are some of the reasons why:

  • Russia’s energy production and consumption will grow by 21% and 20% between 2012 and 2035.
  • The country’s share of global energy production and consumption will both decline slightly from 10% to 9%, and from 6% to 5% respectively.
  • Russia will remain the world’s largest primary energy exporter, with net exports of 736 million toe by 2035.
  • Russia’s liquids production will trail only Saudi Arabia and the US. Tight oil production will commence post 2020 and gradually climb to 7% of the country’s total by 2035.
  • Gas production will remain predominantly conventional yet will still be the second largest in the world.
  • Fossil fuels will account for 84% of Russian primary energy consumption in 2035, down from 89% in 2012.
  • Natural gas will keep the land in Russia’s fuel mix, yet its share will decline from 54% today to 50% in 2035; oil’s share will remain flat.
  • Gas will also remain the leading fuel in power generation.
  • Energy consumption in power generation will rise by 13%; energy use in transport by 49%.
  • Oil’s share in transport will go down from 94% today to 91% in 2035.
  • Despite significant improvements in energy efficiency, Russia’s energy intensity will remain about twice as high as the OECD average, reflecting an earlier stage of post industrial development and harsh climate.
  • 2 emissions will grow by 14% well below energy consumption growth. 

Edited from various sources by Claira Lloyd.